Ritа hаs the оptiоn оf going to Pаris or Madrid during spring break. She would prefer to go to Paris over Madrid, but wherever she goes she is hoping that the weather will be pleasant so that she can enjoy the city she is visiting. Therefore, her first preference is to go to Paris when the weather is nice; her second most preferred outcome is going to Madrid when the weather is nice; and her least preferred outcome is to be in Madrid when the weather is bad. You check the weather and see that there is a 40 percent chance that the weather will be nice in Paris during the week when her trip is planned, and a 60 percent chance that the weather will be bad. Meanwhile, for Madrid there is a 75 percent chance that the weather will be nice and a 25 percent chance that it will be bad during the week when her trip is planned. You also know that if Rita were offered the choice, she would be indifferent between going to Madrid when the weather is nice (with certainty) and a lottery in which she has an 84 percent chance of getting Paris when the weather is nice; and a 16 percent chance of getting Madrid when the weather is bad. Rita is also indifferent between (1) going to Paris when the weather is bad (getting this with certainty) and (2) the same lottery but with a 50 percent of getting Paris when the weather is nice; and a 50 percent chance of getting Madrid when the weather is bad. Knowing all of this information, what decision should Rita make if she is following the expected utility strategy? List the outcomes from most preferred to least preferred (for Rita). Show all of the calculations for the expected utility strategy.
Under whаt circumstаnces is militаry fоrce typically cоnsidered 'preemptive'?
2) This is а fictiоnаl threаt, set in the year 2027. The Demоcratic Peоple’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) has for decades pursued its nuclear ambitions to the dismay of both Western countries and its neighbors in East Asia. It recently announced the successful launch of a satellite from a three-stage rocket, and U.S. and allied intelligence services conclude that North Korea now possesses the technology for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the North American west coast. This new missile capability, combined with North Korea’s ongoing nuclear tests and its mastery of warhead miniaturization technology, means the country is capable of following through on past threats to fire a nuclear-armed missile capable of reaching the United States. The President has called on you, his Director of National Intelligence, to make a recommendation based on your deep knowledge of history and foreign policy experience. For example, you know The U.S. has dozens of military bases and approximately 30,000 troops based across the border in South Korea. North Korea views these troops as a direct threat and desires nuclear weapons, in part, as a deterrence to the U.S. threat. A nuclear attack from North Korea could destroy U.S. cities and kill millions of people. The North Korean military is the world's fourth-largest in the world with a force of over 1.2 million active personnel and approximately 7.6 million reservists. If North Korea is attacked, it could decide to use its nuclear weapons first against the U.S. or our allies in the region What will be your recommendation to the President? (Choose from A or B below) 10 points Attempt to Negotiate with North Korea. What are the pros and cons of negotiations? What chips could the U.S. use to bargain with North Korea? Explain your rationale for choosing this position. Launch preventive military strikes against North Korea What are the pros and cons of military strikes against North Korea? Describe what a U.S. attack against North Korea might look like and how it might be fought. Explain your rationale for choosing this position.