A financial advisor claims their stock-picking method works…
A financial advisor claims their stock-picking method works because their last five predictions were correct. However, over the past year they made 47 total predictions, with 23 correct and 24 incorrect. When confronted with this information, they respond: “I’ve really improved lately—just look at my recent track record.” What cognitive error makes their recent success seem more impressive than it actually is?
Read DetailsA police officer stops a car driven by someone matching a su…
A police officer stops a car driven by someone matching a suspect description: tall, dark hair, wearing glasses. Under stress during the stop, the officer later reports the driver was wearing a red jacket, had a beard, and spoke with an accent—details that security footage shows are completely inaccurate. The officer genuinely believes these false details. What best explains these confidently held but false memories?
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