Police arrest a University of Texas fan for a robbery. At th…
Police arrest a University of Texas fan for a robbery. At the trial, the prosecutor indicates that a witness, Terry, had given a statement that the robber was wearing an orange sweatshirt. In Madison, however, red sweatshirts will tend to outnumber orange sweatshirts by a factor of 100-1. If the jurors focus primarily on Terry’s specific testimony, rather than consider the overall commonness of red and orange sweatshirts, they’re likely falling victim to what decision-making issue?
Read DetailsHal is a third-year medical student in Wisconsin. Yesterday…
Hal is a third-year medical student in Wisconsin. Yesterday he was reading a paper about Dengue Fever, which comes from a virus transmitted via mosquitoes. The primary symptoms are fever, vomiting, aches and pains, and fatigue. It is incredibly uncommon in the state of Wisconsin (particularly in winter). The next day, Hal is seeing a patient whose symptoms are a good fit to Dengue fever. The symptoms are also a pretty good fit to the flu (though a slightly less good fit than the fit to Dengue fever). The flu right now is very common in Wisconsin. In his mind, Hal overestimates how common Dengue Fever might be in Wisconsin right now. He also focuses strongly on the fact that the symptoms are a very slightly better fit to Dengue Fever than to flu. As such, he gives the patient a diagnosis of Dengue fever. Hal’s overestimation of the commonness of Dengue Fever based on the fact that he was just reading about Dengue Fever, is a good example of what decision-making issue?
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