Suppose you were given the following information from a fore…
Suppose you were given the following information from a forecasting spreadsheet, using quarterly data from the past five whole years (or 20 quarters). You are now at the end of the fifth year. (You’ll be using this same information on the next two questions as well.) Demand = 1000 + 14 (time) Season Seasonal Indexes 1 0.90 2 1.05 3 0.85 4 1.20 What would be the forecast accounting for base and trend, but not seasonality, for the third quarter of the coming year (period 23)?
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Suppose you have the following information from a forecasting software package. You have two full years of past data, and you have three periods (i.e., three terms) in each year. You are now sitting at the end of period 6, which is the last term of the second year. (Note: The best-fit line equation shown below was made up by me; it may not actually be the true equation if you were to do an analysis of this data.) Demand = 40 + 10 (Time) Period Year Demand 1 2022 369 2 2022 460 3 2022 460 4 2023 418 5 2023 495 6 2023 590 What would be the forecast for the third term of 2024, if you didn’t care about adjusting for any seasonality?
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