While watching a game of Champions League football in a cafe…
While watching a game of Champions League football in a cafe, you observe someone who is clearly supporting Manchester United in the game. What is the probability that they were actually born within 25 miles of Manchester ? Assume that: The probability that a randomly selected person in a typical local bar environment is born within 25 miles of Manchester is 1/20 the chance that a person born within 25 miles of Manchester actually supports United is 7/10 the probability that a person not born within 25 miles of Manchester supports United with probability 1/10
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