EXHIBIT 3 The data in the file Midterm_Exhibit 3_DATA.xlsm shows the sales data of a company from 2007 to 2019. For the questions in this exhibit, you will need to open the Excel file and create the appropriate forecasts to answer the questions. DO NOT ADD COLUMNS OR ROWS IN THIS FILE. Important: When clicking on the link, if the file does not open you will find it in the “download” section of your browser (bottom left of the page) and you can open it from there. If it still does not open, make sure that you are not editing a formula in another Excel file (this sometimes prevents you from opening a new file). Please note that this file is protected against saving. Do not close this file until you submit the exam, otherwise you may loose its content. In case you inadvertently closed the file, please download it again.

EXHIBIT 1 In this exhibit, a bakery considers producing a new type of bread. This bread would sell for $3.50 per unit, and the variable cost per unit would be $2.70. Producing this bread requires the bakery to purchase a new machine at a cost of $15,000, which the bakery would depreciate over 3 years at a rate of $5,000 per year. The depreciation of this machine is the only fixed cost the bakery wants to include in the break-even analysis for the new type of bread. You can use the following blank Excel file to run your calculations: Midterm_Exhibit 1_BLANK FILE.xlsm Important: When clicking on this link, if the file does not open you will find it in the “download” section of your browser (bottom left of the page) and you can open it from there. If it still does not open, make sure that you are not editing a formula in another Excel file (this sometimes prevents you from opening a new file). Please note that this file is protected against saving. Do not close this file until you submit the exam, otherwise you may loose its content. In case you inadvertently closed the file, please download it again.

You have a time series with past demand data over 10 periods, and you observe a developing positive trend. Which of the following methods will result in the most adaptive forecast?

Please write the correct formula you should type in Excel to calculate the forecast for Week 30 using a weighted moving average forecast method, using the parameters indicated in the Excel file (the formula needs to be entered in a way that allows to calculate the forecasts for the other months as well). All references refer to the cells in the file you downloaded for this exhibit.

You want to develop a quantitative analysis model of this situation. Which of the following expressions is the correct equation for describing the annual total cost as a function of volume x?

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY By taking this exam, I understand that I am not allowed to access any resources other than the Midterm Exam on Canvas and the Excel files provided within the exam. I understand that my actions on this computer are being recorded during the whole exam, and accessing any unauthorized resource (online or offline) during the exam will lead to an unforgivable F for this course.

Please write the correct formula you should type in Excel to calculate the trend factor for 2020 using an exponential smoothing with trend forecast method (the formula needs to be entered in a way that allows to calculate the forecasts for the other months as well). All references refer to the cells in the file you downloaded for this exhibit.

What is the MAD of this forecast? Please provide your answer rounded to the closest whole number.

Please forecast the demand for Week 30 using a weighted moving average forecast, based on the data and parameters indicated in the Excel file. Round your answer to the closest whole number.

EXHIBIT 2 In this exhibit, a company collected data about the number of bicycles sold from 2003 – 2019. This demand data as well as the forecast parameters are provided in the file Midterm_Exhibit 2_DATA.xlsm. For the questions in this exhibit, you will need to open the Excel file and create the appropriate forecasts to answer the questions. DO NOT ADD COLUMNS OR ROWS IN THIS FILE. Important: When clicking on the link, if the file does not open you will find it in the “download” section of your browser (bottom left of the page) and you can open it from there. If it still does not open, make sure that you are not editing a formula in another Excel file (this sometimes prevents you from opening a new file). Please note that this file is protected against saving. Do not close this file until you submit the exam, otherwise you may loose its content. In case you inadvertently closed the file, please download it again.